Who's running in Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district
2 candidates are on the ballot. Below is what each one says they stand for, what they have actually done in office or in public life, and the arguments published for and against them — each quoted from a named source rather than summarised by us.
2 candidates · ballot order · Mike Kelly currently holds this seat
Medium confidenceMedium confidenceThe candidate's stated positions and basic record are documented, but coverage is thin — often little independent reporting, or criticism from only one side.What would raise it: More independent reporting, a documented voting record, or published criticism from a named opponent would raise this.
What they say they stand for
Their own words. Claims, not verified facts.
Tax policy, as chairman of the Ways and Means tax subcommittee.
Steel and manufacturing in Butler and Erie counties; he lobbied for a tariff exclusion that kept a Cleveland-Cliffs plant open.
Medicaid home nursing care, which he has visited recipients to see first-hand.
The Republican budget and tax agenda.
Tighter rules on mail voting.
What they’ve actually done
Documented record from official sources.
U.S. Representative since January 2011; chairman of the Ways and Means tax subcommittee.
Car dealership owner in Butler before Congress.
Lead petitioner in the 2020 case seeking to invalidate Pennsylvania's mail ballots, which the Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected unanimously.
In 2020 lobbied the administration for a steel tariff exclusion for the Butler plant; one day after his staff learned of the Commerce Department's plans, his wife bought 5,000 Cleveland-Cliffs shares for $23,075, later sold for a profit of $64,476.
Entered the 2026 general election with more than $1.1 million on hand.
Endorsed for re-election by President Trump in November 2025.
Arguments in favor
President Trump endorsed his re-election.
— President Donald Trump
His campaign points to his tax subcommittee chairmanship and to his successful lobbying for the tariff exclusion that kept the Cleveland-Cliffs plant in Butler open when its chief executive had warned it might close.
— The Kelly campaign
Arguments against
After a four-year investigation, the bipartisan House Ethics Committee found substantial evidence that he violated the congressional code of conduct over his wife's Cleveland-Cliffs stock purchase, said he failed to meet his duty of candour during the inquiry, and urged the couple to divest any remaining shares. The committee found no evidence of insider trading.
— House Committee on Ethics, July 2025
He was the lead petitioner in the case that asked the courts to throw out every mail ballot cast in Pennsylvania in 2020; the state Supreme Court rejected it unanimously.
— The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania's 2020 ruling in Kelly v. Commonwealth
What we couldn’t verify
The Ethics Committee found no evidence of insider trading; the violation it found concerned the code of conduct and his candour during the investigation. Kelly's own response to the report was not established from sources read.
Whether the Kellys have since divested the remaining Cleveland-Cliffs holdings was not established.
His 2026 fundraising advantage over his opponent is large but the opponent's figures were not established.
Manufacturing and engineering jobs in north-western Pennsylvania.
What they’ve actually done
Documented record from official sources.
Military veteran; automation engineer working with life-sciences and pharmaceutical clients.
Previously did engineering work for the City of Seattle.
Won the May 19, 2026 Democratic primary; has not held elected office.
Arguments in favor
We found none published about this candidate in the sources reviewed.
Arguments against
We found none published about this candidate in the sources reviewed.
What we couldn’t verify
No published criticism of Wagner by name could be found. Searched: his name with 'criticism', with 'opponent', against National Republican Congressional Committee material, against Mike Kelly's campaign, and against Erie Times-News, YourErie and Butler-area coverage. Because no case against him exists on the record, no case for him is presented either.
His endorsements and fundraising were not established from sources read; the incumbent entered the general election with more than $1.1 million on hand.
His positions on questions outside health care were not established from sources read.
Positions and criticism are quoted from the named sources, not our assessments. This is built to help you start getting informed — confirm the official candidate list with your election authority before you vote.
Pennsylvania held its primary on May 19, 2026. Republican incumbent Mike Kelly, an eight-term member from Butler, faces Democrat Justin Wagner. The district covers north-western Pennsylvania — all of Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence and Butler counties and part of Venango. Roster confirmed against Ballotpedia and City & State Pennsylvania. Criticism of Wagner by name could not be found, so his entry carries no arguments in either column.
This is one contest on a longer ballot
A Pennsylvania ballot also carries state legislative districts, county offices, judicial seats and often local questions — and which of them you vote on is decided by your street address, not your city or ZIP code.
Your ballot is determined by your election authority, not by us. Verify your registration, precinct, and sample ballot at Pennsylvania Department of State.